A comprehensive introduction to how ML can add value to the design and execution of algorithmic trading strategies
View the Project on GitHub stefan-jansen/machine-learning-for-trading
It is not necessary to try and install all libraries at once because this increases the likeliihood of encountering version conflicts. Instead, we recommend that you install the libraries required for a specific chapter as you go along.
Update March 2022:
zipline-reloaded
,pyfolio-reloaded
,alphalens-reloaded
, andempyrical-reloaded
are now available on theconda-forge
channel. The channelml4t
only contains outdated versions and will soon be removed.
There is still incomplete support for MacOS using M1/Silicone chips. Some packages compatible with new architecture are only available via
conda
/mamba
, others only viapip
. As a result, there is no single installation script yet - I hope to be able to simplify this as the support across the PyData ecosystem matures. For now, please create separateconda
/pip
-based environments to install packages as needed and supported.
Update September 10, 2021: New OS-agnostic environment files
ml4t-base.[txt, yml]
forpip
(Linux, MacOS) andconda
(Linux, MacOS, Windows) installs available that include the latest Zipline, Alphalens and Pyfolio versions. These files are OS-agnostic because they include only the main libraries and not OS-specific dependencies, leaving the selection of the latest compatible versions and OS-specific dependencies to your package manager of choice.
Update April 25, 2021: The new Zipline version permits running the backtest notebooks without Docker on all operating systems; the installation instructions now refer to Windows/MacOS/Linux environment files.
Update March 14, 2021: I have just released a new Zipline version that runs on Python 3.7-3.9; see release info and docs. As a result, the Docker solution will no longer be necessary going forward and I will provide new environment files over the course of April.
Update Feb 26, 2021: Release 2.0 reduces the number of environments to 2 and bumps the Python version to 3.8 for the main
ml4t
and to 3.6 for thebacktest
environment. Instructions below reflect these changes.To update the Docker image to the latest version, run:
docker pull appliedai/packt:latest
This book uses Python 3.8 and various ML- and trading-related libraries that can be installed:
ml4t.yml
environment files,
installation/ml4t-base.yml
file instead.conda create -n ml4t python=3.8
mamba env update -n ml4t -f ml4t-base.yml
conda activate ml4t
ml4t.txt
requirement files.We’ll describe how to obtain the source code and then lay out the first two options in turn. Then, we address how to work with Jupyter notebooks to view and execute the code examples. Finally, we list the legacy Docker installation instructions.
You can work with the code samples by downloading a compressed version of the GitHub repository, or by cloning its content. The latter will result in a larger download because it includes the commit history.
Alternatively, you can create a fork of the repo and continue to develop from there after cloning its content.
To work with the code locally, do the following:
ssh
or https
links or the download option provided by the green Code
button on the GitHub repository, either clone or unzip the code to the target folder.
git clone https://github.com/stefan-jansen/machine-learning-for-trading.git
and change into the new directory.machine-learning-for-trading
, the ZIP the version will unzip to machine-learning-for-trading-master
.conda
environmentsThe instructions rely on Anaconda’s miniconda distribution, the mamba package manager to facilitate dependency management, and OS-specific environment files at installation/[windows|macos|linux]/ml4t.yml
with pinned library versions.
Alternatively, there is also an environment file installation/ml4t-base.yml
that only contains a list of the required libraries without dependencies; if you use this file instead you will obtain the latest versions - just be aware that at some point more recent software may become incompatible with the examples.
You could also just install the packages required for the notebooks you are interested in; the most recent versions (as of March 2021) should work.
The notebooks rely on a single virtual environment based on miniconda3 that you need to install first.
You can find detailed instructions for various operating systems here.
[conda] is the package manager provided by the Anaconda python distribution. Unfortunately, it is currently not in very good shape. Instead, we’ll use the more recent and much faster mamba package manager to install packages. You can install it using:
conda install -n base -c conda-forge mamba
To create a virtual environment with the latest versions of the libraries used in the notebooks (as of April 2021), you just need to run one of the following options (depending on your operating system) from the command line in the root directory of the cloned repo:
conda env create -n ml4t python=3.8
mamba env update -n ml4t -f installation/windows/ml4t.yml
mamba env update -n ml4t -f installation/macosx/ml4t.yml # deprecated; use ml4t-base.yml
mamba env update -n ml4t -f installation/linux/ml4t.yml
See also here for a more detailed tutorial on virtual environments.
If you want to create a new environment with the latest library versions as of whenever you read this, run
conda env create -f installation/ml4t-base.yml
After you’ve create it, you can activate the environment using its name, which in our case is ml4t
:
conda activate ml4t
To deactivate, simply use
conda deactivate
You should install the required libraries in a virtual environment. See the docs for the built-in venv option, or the pyenv alternative that allows you to run multiple Python versions in parallel.
Several of the libraries require previous installation of OS-specific software, which may depend on the state of your machine. We list a few common cases below. Should you encounter other problems, please consult the documentation for the library causing the issue. In case this does not resolve the matter, please raise an issue on our GitHub so we can take a look and update the instructions here accordingly.
Installation for MacOS requires the following libraries that can be installed via homebrew:
brew install lightgbm swig xz ta-lib
On Ubuntu, pre-requisites can be fulfilled via apt
. For TA-Lib, the necessary steps are:
# install the build tool
sudo apt install build-essential wget -y
# Download and extract the source code
wget https://artiya4u.keybase.pub/TA-lib/ta-lib-0.4.0-src.tar.gz
tar -xvf ta-lib-0.4.0-src.tar.gz
# Config and build from source.
cd ta-lib/
./configure --prefix=/usr
make
# Install to system
sudo make install
Assuming you have created and activated a virtual environment, you just need to run (depending on your OS):
pip install -U pip setuptools wheel
pip install -r installation/macosx/ml4t.txt # for macOS; deprecated; use ml4t-base.txt
pip install -r installation/linux/ml4t.txt # for Ubuntu
To download US equity data that we’ll be using for several examples throughout the book in the next step, register for a personal Quandl account to obtain an API key. It will be displayed on your profile page.
If you are on a UNIX-based system like Mac OSX, you may want to store the API key in an environment variable such as QUANDL_API_KEY, e.g. by adding export QUANDL_API_KEY=<your_key>
to your .bash_profile
.
To run Zipline backtests, we need to ingest
data. See the Beginner Tutorial for more information.
Per default, Zipline stores data in your user directory under ~/.zipline
directory.
From the command prompt, activate your ml4t
virtual environment and run:
zipline ingest -b quandl
You should see numerous messages (including some warnings that you can ignore) as Zipline processes around 3,000 stock price series.
This section covers how to set up notebook extension that facilitate working in this environment and how to convert notebooks to python script if preferred.
jupyter notebooks can use a range of extension provided by the community. There are many useful ones that are described in the documentation.
The notebooks in this repo are formatted to use the Table of Contents (2) extension. For the best experience, activate it using the Configurator in the Nbextensions tab available in your browser after starting the jupyter server. Modify the settings to check the option ‘Leave h1 items out of ToC’ if not set by default.
The book uses jupyter notebooks to present the code with extensive commentary and context information and facilitate the visualization of results in one place. Some of the code examples are longer and make more sense to run as python
scripts; you can convert a notebook to a script by running the following on the command line:
$ jupyter nbconvert --to script [YOUR_NOTEBOOK].ipynb
Docker Desktop is a very popular application for MacOS and Windows machines because is permits for the easy sharing of containerized applications across different OS. For this book, we have a Docker image that let’s you instantiate a container to run Ubuntu 20.04 as a guest OS with the pre-installed conda environments on Windows 10 or Mac OS X without worrying about dependencies on your host.
As usual, installation differs for Mac OS X and Window 10, and requires an additional step for Windows 10 Home to enable virtualization.
We’ll cover installation for each OS separately and then address some setting adjustments necessary in both cases.
Installing Docker Desktop on Mac OS X is very straightforward:
Open terminal and run the following test to check that Docker works:
docker run hello-world
Review the Getting Started guide for Mac OS to familiarize yourself with key settings and commands.
Docker Desktop works on both Windows 10 Home and Pro editions; the Home edition requires the additional step of enabling the Virtual Machine Platform.
You can now install Docker Desktop on Windows Home machines using the Windows Subsystem for Linux (WSL 2) backend. Docker Desktop on Windows Home is a full version of Docker Desktop for Linux container development.
Windows 10 Home machines must meet certain requirements. These include Windows 10 Home version 2004 (released May 2020) or higher. The Docker Desktop Edge release also supports Windows 10, version 1903 or higher.
Enable WSL 2 as described here, taking the following steps:
dism.exe /online /enable-feature /featurename:Microsoft-Windows-Subsystem-Linux /all /norestart
dism.exe /online /enable-feature /featurename:VirtualMachinePlatform /all /norestart
wsl --set-default-version 2
Once we have enabled WSL 2 for Windows Home, the remaining steps to install Docker Desktop are the same for Windows 10 Home and Pro, Enterprise or Education. Refer to the linked guides for each OS version for system requirements.
Open Powershell and run the following test to check that Docker works:
docker run hello-world
Review the Getting Started guide for Windows to familiarize yourself with key settings and commands.
The getting started guides for each OS referenced above describe the Docker Desktop settings.
We will download the code examples and data to the local drive on your host OS but run it from the Docker container by mounting your local drive as a volume. This should work fine with the current versions but in case you receive permission errors , please refer to the File Sharing sections in the Docker user guides. The Docker GUIs let you assign permissions explicitly. See also (slightly outdated) explanation here.
You can work with the code samples by downloading a compressed version of the GitHub repository, or by cloning its content. The latter will result in a larger download because it includes the commit history.
Alternatively, you can create a fork of the repo and continue to develop from there after cloning its content.
To work with the code locally, do the following:
ssh
or https
links or the download option provided by the green Code
button on the GitHub repository, either clone or unzip the code to the target folder.
git clone https://github.com/stefan-jansen/machine-learning-for-trading.git
and change into the new directory.machine-learning-for-trading
, the ZIP the version will unzip to machine-learning-for-trading-master
.To download US equity data that we’ll be using for several examples throughout the book in the next step, register for a personal Quandl account to obtain an API key. It will be displayed on your profile page.
If you are on a UNIX-based system like Mac OSX, you may want to store the API key in an environment variable such as QUANDL_API_KEY, e.g. by adding export QUANDL_API_KEY=<your_key>
to your .bash_profile
.
We’ll be using a Docker image based on the Ubuntu 20.04 OS with Anaconda’s miniconda Python distribution installed. It comes with two conda environments described below.
With a single Docker command, we can accomplish several things at once (see the Getting Started guides linked above for more detail):
appliedai
and the repository packt
with the tag latest
ml4t
and runs it in interactive mode, forwarding the port 8888 used by the jupyter
server/home/packt/ml4t
inside the containerQUANDL_API_KEY
with the value of your key (that you need to fill in for <your API key>
), andbash
terminal inside the container, resulting in a new command prompt for the user packt
.pwd
command as a shell variable that contains the absolute path to the present working directory (and you could use $QUANDL_API_KEY
if you created such an environment variable in the previous step):
docker run -it -v $(pwd):/home/packt/ml4t -p 8888:8888 -e QUANDL_API_KEY=<your API key> --name ml4t appliedai/packt:latest bash
Windows: enter the absolute path to the current directory with forward slashes, e.g. C:/Users/stefan/Documents/machine-learning-for-trading
instead of C:\Users\stefan\Documents\machine-learning-for-trading
, so that the command becomes (for this example):
docker run -it -v C:/Users/stefan/Documents/machine-learning-for-trading:/home/packt/ml4t -p 8888:8888 -e QUANDL_API_KEY=<your API key> --name ml4t appliedai/packt:latest bash
exit
from the container shell to exit and stop the container.docker start -a -i ml4t
from Mac OS terminal or Windows Powershell in the root directory to restart the container and attach it to the host shell in interactive mode (see Docker docs for more detail).To update the Docker image to the latest version, run:
docker pull appliedai/packt:latest
Now you are running a shell inside the container and can access both conda environments. Run conda env list
to see that there are a base
, ml4t
(default), and a backtest
environments.
The backtest
environment is necessary because the latest version of Zipline 1.4.1 only support Python 3.6 and older versions of various other dependencies that partly also require compilation. I hope to update Zipline in the future to run on Python 3.8 as well.
We use the environment ml4t
except for a dozen notebooks related to backtesting that use Zipline directly inputs generated by Zipline. The notebooks that require the backtest
environment contain a notification.
If you want to use a GPU for the deep learning examples, you can run
conda install tensorflow-gpu
if you have the proper CUDA version installed. Alternatively, you can leverage TensorFlow’s Docker images and install any additional libraries there; the DL examples don’t require anything that’s overly complicated to install.
conda activate <env_name>
or using the Jupyter Notebook or Jupyter Lab Kernel menu thanks to the nb_conda_kernels extension (see below).conda init bash
. After doing so, reload the shell with the command source .bashrc
.To run Zipline backtests, we need to ingest
data. See the Beginner Tutorial for more information.
The image has been configured to store the data in a .zipline
directory in the directory where you started the container (which should be the root folder of the starter code you’ve downloaded above).
From the command prompt of the container shell, run
conda activate backtest
zipline ingest -b quandl
You should see numerous messages as Zipline processes around 3,000 stock price series.
I have patched the following country code issue in the latest Zipline version, so you should not have to manually fiddle with the asset database any longer.
When running a backtest, you will likely encounter an error because the current Zipline version requires a country code entry in the exchanges table of the assets-7.sqlite
database where it stores the asset metadata.
The linked GitHub issue describes how to address this by opening the SQLite database and entering US
in the country_code
field of the exchanges table.
In practice, this looks as follows:
assets-7.sqlite
in the directory containing your latest bundle download. The path will look like this (on Linux/Max OSX) if you ran the command as just described: ~/machine-learning-for-trading/data/.zipline/data/quandl/2020-12-29T02;06;08.894865/
exchanges
as outlined in the following screenshot:
That’s all. Unfortunately, you (had to..) repeat this everytime you run zipline ingest -b quandl
. This error still occurs when you run zipline ingest
for the default quantopian-quandl
bundle because this command bypasses the ingest
process and downloads instead a compressed version of the result generated by an earlier version of Zipline.
You can run jupyter notebooks using either the traditional notebook or the more recent Jupyter Lab interface; both are available in all conda
environments. Moreover, you start jupyter from the base
environment and switch the environment from the notebook due to the nb_conda_kernels
package (see docs.
To get started, run one of the following two commands:
jupyter notebook --ip 0.0.0.0 --no-browser --allow-root
jupyter lab --ip 0.0.0.0 --no-browser --allow-root
There are also alias
shortcuts for each so you don’t have to type them:
nb
for the jupyter notebook
version, andlab
for the jupyter lab
version.The container terminal will display a few messages while spinning up the jupyter server. When complete, it will display a URL that you should paste into your browser to access the jupyter server from the current working directory.
You can modify any of the environments using the standard conda workflow outlined below; see Docker docs for how to persist containers after making changes.